Box-Jenkins ARIMA Modelling in Excel

“Box-Jenkins ARIMA modelling in Excel” is quite unique in terms of what it offers. It is unique from at least three different perspectives. The first point is that it is less than 100 pages long, which is intended by design to make it completely focused and concentrated on only one method. Secondly, the objective of the book is to “translate” the mathematics and the language of this stochastic modelling approach and make it accessible and easily understood, even for readers with limited exposure to this domain. And thirdly, to achieve this, Excel is used as the platform of choice, but without any Macros, VBA and custom functions. The idea behind is that complex formulae and procedures can be more easily understood if they are broken down to a familiar Excel syntax. The book does not provide a broader statistical context, or the management science context about forecasting, or mathematical theorems and proofs. It is a practical guide that assumes that readers will have some elementary idea about these concepts, or can easily acquire this knowledge from other academic books. The book is designed to help readers “crack” this method, and this is its sole objective. The chapters included in the book are as follows:

1.Introduction
2.Stochastic processes and stationarity
3.Stabilizing the variance
4.Differencing
5.Correlation
6.Autocorrelation
7.Standard error for autocorrelations
8.Partial autocorrelation
9.Using Excel matrices functions to calculate partial autocorrelations
10.Standard errors for the partial autocorrelations
11.Fundamental stochastic ARMA models
12.Model identification
13.Estimation of the coefficients
14.Fitting the model
15.Diagnostic checking
16.Forecasting
17.Prediction interval
18.Alternative shortcuts to estimation and forecasting
19.Handling seasonality
20.Wrapping all up